Using the Theory of Change to guide your actions
Let’s focus on the crucial issue of alignment between the different elements of the Theory of Change. Once the vision of the ideal world is clear, the next step is to identify why this world is not yet a reality.
Then it becomes necessary to determine how to respond to these problems. In other words, we need to identify the causes we wish to act on and the expected results.
Choosing the levers for action and identifying the inputs
A key question is whether it is sufficient to treat only some of the causes.
Problems are often complex and involve many causes, which makes it impossible to address them all.
The level of intervention indicates where the organisation acts in the causal chain:
- on beneficiaries or communities (micro),
- on organisations or institutions working with these communities (meso),
- or on public policies (macro).
The efforts, interventions, and expected results will differ depending on this choice.
This theory can identify other causes on which the organisation chooses not to act, either because the organisation has no means of influencing these causes, or because other players are already doing this work. It is important to make these choices explicit, as this shows that the organisation understands the context and designs its projects accordingly.
Finally, the organisation reflects on the major activities to be undertaken to resolve all or part of the problems identified. In other words: What are the people going to be mobilised around? What will they be doing? What will they need to carry out these activities? What inputs are required?
Ensuring a coherent chain of logic
The alignment of activities, outcomes and impact is essential to maximise the effectiveness of the organisation. A theory of change is coherent if there is a good alignment of activities with expected outcomes, and the organisation is able to demonstrate the logical link between planned activities and expected outcomes. This demonstration can be based on experience, for example through previous projects or studies. Each action undertaken must be a step towards achieving the results. It is important to specify the hypotheses, so that the logical sequence is coherent. Questioning the causal links between activities and expected results strengthens the coherence of the theory of change.
Two-way thinking
To determine your theory of change as coherently as possible, it’s important to think in terms of both resources and mission. Aligning resources and vision so that they are in line with each other is necessary if results are to be achieved.
It is crucial to ensure coherence between the different parts of the theory of change by thinking in both directions:
Ongoing monitoring and adjustment
During the implementation phase, the theory of change becomes a monitoring tool. It enables you to stay focused on your objectives and measure progress. It also means paying attention to the gaps between expected and actual results, and adjusting plans accordingly.
In the implementation phase, the organisation may realise that some of the assumptions are not the right ones, or that the context has changed and that it needs to adjust them. Ongoing monitoring of activities and results is essential to ensure that cause and effect relationships are valid.
Evaluation and learning
During the impact or project evaluation phase, the theory of change plays a crucial role. The theory of change should help the organisation to understand the extent to which its actions have contributed to the changes observed. This will form the basis of the work carried out by the evaluation: ensuring consistency between inputs and activities, the results obtained and the achievement of objectives, as well as the contribution to impacts. Learning and adaptation are continuous processes. Each project provides valuable information that should refine the theory of change. It is an opportunity to learn, grow and become more effective. Ultimately, a well-articulated theory of change is a compass that guides every step of the engagement towards achieving your goals.
In short, the theory of change invites us to carefully look at the final results in relation to the initial objectives of the action. This raises central questions such as: Are the processes used really those that have generated the change expected from the outset? How can we disentangle the effects of the project from those of changes in the environment in which it has evolved? What conditions are necessary to achieve the desired effect? Which conditions are both necessary and sufficient, and which are necessary but not sufficient?
By answering these questions, the theory of change sheds light on the path to a more effective and targeted action.
Other resource on the topic 👉 https://www.scalechanger.org/en/resources/understanding-and-implementing-the-theory-of-change-a-guide-for-organisations/
